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Water AlliesTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.2% | +0.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.8% | -0.7 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Rogue | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magus Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Astral Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Provoke Obstinance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbinder Apostle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Foraging Servant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |